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8月31日(ri)，電力規劃設(she)計總院在京召開(kai)《中國(guo)能(neng)源發展(zhan)(zhan)報(bao)告(gao)2023》《中國(guo)電力發展(zhan)(zhan)報(bao)告(gao)2023》發布(bu)會。

以下(xia)為(wei)北極星電力網(wang)從“電規總(zong)院”公眾號截取的(de)《中國(guo)電力發展報告2023》重點內容：

《中國電(dian)力發(fa)展報告2023》

01 電力行業高(gao)質量發展基礎(chu)更(geng)加(jia)堅實

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)規總(zong)(zong)院(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力發(fa)(fa)展研(yan)究院(yuan)副院(yuan)長（主持工(gong)作(zuo)）劉(liu)強表示，我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應保障能(neng)力進(jin)一(yi)步增(zeng)強。截至2022年底，全國(guo)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)總(zong)(zong)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)達到(dao) 25.6億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)增(zeng)長 7.8%；全國(guo)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)8.7 萬億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，同比(bi)增(zeng)長3.6%；“西電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東送”規模約(yue)3.0億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)增(zeng)長4.2%。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力綠色低(di)碳轉型(xing)步伐加快。2022年新(xin)增(zeng)非化石(shi)能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)約(yue)1.5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占總(zong)(zong)新(xin)增(zeng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)的83.0%；新(xin)增(zeng)非化石(shi)能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)約(yue)2500億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，占總(zong)(zong)新(xin)增(zeng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的84.0%。

2022 年全國各類電源發(fa)電裝機(ji)和發(fa)電量(liang)（億千瓦、萬億千瓦時）

《電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)報告(gao)》顯示(shi)，我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)求穩(wen)步增(zeng)長。2022年我(wo)國全社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量達到8.6萬億(yi)千瓦時，同比增(zeng)長3.6%。用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)結構繼續優化(hua)，保持由(you)二產用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)向三(san)產、居民生活用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)轉移(yi)趨勢。未來(lai)三(san)年，全國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)求仍將保持剛性增(zeng)長，預計2025年全社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量達到9.8萬億(yi)至10.2萬億(yi)千瓦時。

劉強表示，我國電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)靈活(huo)性(xing)持續改善。“十(shi)四五”前(qian)兩(liang)年(nian)，“三改聯動(dong)”改造規模合計(ji)超(chao)過4.85億千瓦，完成規劃目標的81%。截至2022年(nian)底，抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能裝機容(rong)量達4579萬千瓦，新(xin)型(xing)儲能累計(ji)規模約870萬千瓦。消納問題持續好轉(zhuan)，全(quan)國風電(dian)(dian)、光伏利用(yong)率達到96.8%、98.3%。未(wei)來(lai)三年(nian)，圍繞建設，需要統(tong)籌優化布局常規水電(dian)(dian)、抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能、風電(dian)(dian)、太陽能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)和煤電(dian)(dian)等各(ge)類電(dian)(dian)源。

02 新型(xing)電(dian)力系統建(jian)設形勢緊迫(po)

新型電力系(xi)統(tong)是構建新型能源體系(xi)的中心(xin)環節(jie)。圍繞新型電力系(xi)統(tong)建設，《電力報告》提出了六(liu)個(ge)方面的研判：

1

新型(xing)電(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)要在現有電(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)上(shang)創新升級。我國(guo)電(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)已逐步(bu)發展(zhan)成為世界上(shang)輸(shu)送容量最大(da)、輸(shu)電(dian)電(dian)壓等(deng)級最高、多區(qu)域電(dian)網交直流(liu)混聯(lian)的電(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)，并(bing)同步(bu)建成完備的電(dian)力(li)(li)工業體系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)。構建新型(xing)電(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)是一項復雜而艱巨的系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)工程，需統(tong)(tong)籌謀劃路徑布局，科學(xue)部(bu)署、有序(xu)推進。

2

新能源安(an)全可靠(kao)替(ti)代(dai)水平亟待提(ti)升。當前，新能源大(da)規模發(fa)展但實(shi)際運(yun)行中提(ti)供(gong)的(de)可靠(kao)容量不超(chao)過(guo)5%，且大(da)多(duo)不能提(ti)供(gong)轉動慣量，尚未形成可靠(kao)替(ti)代(dai)。為實(shi)現(xian)電量替(ti)代(dai)+容量替(ti)代(dai)+安(an)全穩定替(ti)代(dai)的(de)可靠(kao)替(ti)代(dai)要求，還需積極應用“傳統技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)+新型技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)（風(feng)光功(gong)率預測(ce)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)、一體化控制技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)、新型儲能、負荷控制技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)等）”探索(suo)多(duo)種實(shi)現(xian)模式。

3

以系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)觀念推動抽水蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)高質量發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。抽水蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)建(jian)(jian)設(she)周(zhou)期長，需結合系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)需求、站址資源情況，堅(jian)持系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)觀念，統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)(chou)優化(hua)抽蓄(xu)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)規模和建(jian)(jian)設(she)時序、統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)(chou)區域(yu)與省級抽蓄(xu)布(bu)局(ju)的協(xie)調發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)、統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)(chou)抽蓄(xu)與新型儲能(neng)(neng)等其他調節資源的優化(hua)配置，合理布(bu)局(ju)、科(ke)學有序開發(fa)(fa)建(jian)(jian)設(she)。

4

沙(sha)戈荒基地開發要確保(bao)“三位一體”。為保(bao)障沙(sha)戈荒地區新能(neng)源高(gao)質量開發消納，大型(xing)風(feng)光基地開發應(ying)以系統思維統籌優化風(feng)電光伏基地、調(diao)節能(neng)力和(he)外(wai)送通(tong)道三要素規模(mo)、布局和(he)時序。

5

海(hai)上風電(dian)規(gui)模化發(fa)展需堅持(chi)(chi)海(hai)陸(lu)統(tong)籌。我國(guo)海(hai)上風電(dian)主(zhu)要布局(ju)在(zai)東(dong)部沿(yan)海(hai)負(fu)荷中心，規(gui)模化開發(fa)建(jian)設有利于提升(sheng)沿(yan)海(hai)省(sheng)區非(fei)化石能源消費占比，需堅持(chi)(chi)海(hai)陸(lu)統(tong)籌，一(yi)體化規(gui)劃。海(hai)上風電(dian)將在(zai)我國(guo)新(xin)型電(dian)力系統(tong)轉型中發(fa)揮重要作用。

6

全國(guo)統(tong)一電(dian)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)體(ti)系需(xu)協同建(jian)設(she)。在新(xin)型電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)運(yun)行(xing)特性變革、新(xin)能源高速發(fa)展、多元矛盾亟待協調(diao)、電(dian)力(li)安(an)全保(bao)供以(yi)及多市(shi)場(chang)有效銜接等發(fa)展需(xu)要下，全國(guo)統(tong)一電(dian)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)體(ti)系建(jian)設(she)面(mian)臨著新(xin)的形勢。建(jian)設(she)全國(guo)統(tong)一電(dian)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)體(ti)系意義重(zhong)大。