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 積極穩(wen)妥推進碳(tan)達(da)峰(feng)碳(tan)中和，加快規劃建(jian)設，加快(kuai)構建清(qing)潔(jie)低碳、安全充裕、經濟高效、供需協(xie)同(tong)、靈活智能(neng)的(de)是黨(dang)中央、國務院對新形(xing)(xing)勢(shi)(shi)下能(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發展的頂(ding)層部署(shu)。近期，國家(jia)能(neng)源(yuan)局對加(jia)強新形(xing)(xing)勢(shi)(shi)下電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)作(zuo)(zuo)出相(xiang)關部署(shu)，出臺《關于(yu)加(jia)強新形(xing)(xing)勢(shi)(shi)下電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)的指導(dao)意(yi)見》（以下簡稱《意(yi)見》），召開第三次電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)會議，全面總(zong)結電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)安全穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)經驗，指明(ming)新形(xing)(xing)勢(shi)(shi)下電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)面臨的形(xing)(xing)勢(shi)(shi)和(he)(he)挑戰，明(ming)確當前和(he)(he)未來一(yi)段時間(jian)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)安全穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)的主要目標和(he)(he)任務舉措，為做好(hao)新形(xing)(xing)勢(shi)(shi)下電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)奠定(ding)了基礎(chu)。

一、電(dian)力系統穩定(ding)工作(zuo)的重(zhong)大意義

（一）抓好(hao)穩(wen)定工作是管理的根本要求(qiu)

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)安全(quan)是國(guo)家安全(quan)和(he)社會(hui)經濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)展的重要基礎。改革開放以來，我(wo)國(guo)高度(du)重視穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)工作(zuo)，曾于(yu)1981年(nian)(nian)(nian)、2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)兩次召開電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)工作(zuo)會(hui)議(yi)(yi)，在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行業發(fa)(fa)(fa)展的關鍵時(shi)期發(fa)(fa)(fa)揮(hui)了(le)(le)(le)重要作(zuo)用。尤其是1981年(nian)(nian)(nian)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)工作(zuo)會(hui)議(yi)(yi)確(que)立(li)了(le)(le)(le)“煤水(shui)油核”的能(neng)源開發(fa)(fa)(fa)方針和(he)“大(da)力(li)(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)”的戰略規(gui)劃(hua)，明確(que)了(le)(le)(le)“管(guan)(guan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)就(jiu)要管(guan)(guan)網(wang)”的指導(dao)思想，設計了(le)(le)(le)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展的路徑，通過了(le)(le)(le)第(di)一(yi)版《電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)安全(quan)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)導(dao)則》。基于(yu)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)工作(zuo)會(hui)精神，我(wo)國(guo)建立(li)了(le)(le)(le)統(tong)(tong)(tong)一(yi)規(gui)劃(hua)、統(tong)(tong)(tong)一(yi)調(diao)度(du)、統(tong)(tong)(tong)一(yi)管(guan)(guan)理的“三(san)統(tong)(tong)(tong)一(yi)”原則和(he)以“三(san)道(dao)防線”為核心的大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)安全(quan)防御體系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)。穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)工作(zuo)會(hui)議(yi)(yi)對合理配置資(zi)源、優化能(neng)源結(jie)構、實現電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展發(fa)(fa)(fa)揮(hui)了(le)(le)(le)重要作(zuo)用。改革開放以來，我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)飛速發(fa)(fa)(fa)展，同(tong)時(shi)安全(quan)運行水(shui)平顯著提(ti)(ti)升。截至2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)底(di)，我(wo)國(guo)各類(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源總裝機(ji)規(gui)模達到25.6億千瓦，西電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東送規(gui)模達到約3億千瓦，已建成發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)總容量(liang)和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)規(gui)模最(zui)大(da)、遠距離(li)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)力(li)(li)最(zui)強、大(da)規(gui)模特高壓交直(zhi)流(liu)混聯(lian)的全(quan)世界(jie)最(zui)復雜電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)，有力(li)(li)支撐了(le)(le)(le)國(guo)民(min)經濟快速發(fa)(fa)(fa)展和(he)人(ren)民(min)生活水(shui)平不(bu)斷提(ti)(ti)高的用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求。依托“三(san)統(tong)(tong)(tong)一(yi)”原則和(he)“三(san)道(dao)防線”，我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)基本杜(du)絕了(le)(le)(le)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)破壞和(he)大(da)面積停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事故。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)破壞事故從70年(nian)(nian)(nian)代年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)19次降到90年(nian)(nian)(nian)代年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)2次，是多年(nian)(nian)(nian)來全(quan)球唯一(yi)沒(mei)有發(fa)(fa)(fa)生大(da)面積停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的特大(da)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)。

（二(er)）新(xin)形勢下加強電力(li)系(xi)統穩定工作意義重大(da)

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)是(shi)規(gui)劃建設(she)(she)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)(xing)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)體(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)、加快綠(lv)色低(di)碳轉型(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)心環(huan)節。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)安全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)對(dui)于(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)(xing)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)體(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)安全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)意義重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)。在(zai)(zai)保障能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)安全(quan)(quan)和(he)“雙(shuang)(shuang)碳”目(mu)標的(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)下(xia)(xia)，未(wei)來(lai)(lai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)將(jiang)在(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)產結構(gou)、運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)機理(li)(li)和(he)平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)模式等(deng)方面發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)深刻變化(hua)(hua)，保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)應和(he)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“安全(quan)(quan)充裕”是(shi)構(gou)建新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)基(ji)(ji)礎(chu)。未(wei)來(lai)(lai)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)需(xu)求(qiu)仍將(jiang)保持(chi)剛(gang)性(xing)增(zeng)(zeng)長。我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基(ji)(ji)數體(ti)(ti)(ti)量(liang)(liang)龐大(da)(da)(da)，目(mu)前人(ren)均用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)水(shui)平(ping)和(he)發(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)相比還(huan)(huan)有較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)(da)差距(ju)，未(wei)來(lai)(lai)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)(xing)工業化(hua)(hua)、信息化(hua)(hua)、城鎮化(hua)(hua)、農業現(xian)(xian)代(dai)化(hua)(hua)將(jiang)呈現(xian)(xian)“并聯式”疊加發(fa)展(zhan)態(tai)勢，預計“十四五”全(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)可達(da)到6%。在(zai)(zai)此背景下(xia)(xia)，新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)安全(quan)(quan)可靠替(ti)代(dai)水(shui)平(ping)亟待(dai)提升(sheng)。目(mu)前新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)裝機占比達(da)到30%，發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)占比14%，但對(dui)于(yu)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)貢獻極小(xiao)。能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉型(xing)(xing)(xing)背景下(xia)(xia)，隨(sui)著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)大(da)(da)(da)量(liang)(liang)替(ti)代(dai)常(chang)規(gui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)保供(gong)(gong)壓力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)(bu)(bu)凸顯(xian)。“雙(shuang)(shuang)高(gao)”特(te)性(xing)給(gei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)安全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)(da)風險(xian)。在(zai)(zai)未(wei)來(lai)(lai)相當(dang)長的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)間內，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)將(jiang)仍然以(yi)交流(liu)(liu)同(tong)(tong)步(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網形(xing)(xing)態(tai)為(wei)(wei)主。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)慣(guan)量(liang)(liang)保障穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)，交流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)功(gong)角、頻(pin)(pin)率、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)仍然需(xu)要(yao)(yao)同(tong)(tong)步(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)維(wei)持(chi)。未(wei)來(lai)(lai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)高(gao)比例新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)和(he)高(gao)比例電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子設(she)(she)備“雙(shuang)(shuang)高(gao)”特(te)性(xing)凸顯(xian)，新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子設(she)(she)備變流(liu)(liu)后接入交流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網，無(wu)法提供(gong)(gong)慣(guan)量(liang)(liang)支(zhi)(zhi)撐。隨(sui)著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)大(da)(da)(da)量(liang)(liang)替(ti)代(dai)常(chang)規(gui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)，維(wei)持(chi)同(tong)(tong)步(bu)(bu)(bu)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)物理(li)(li)基(ji)(ji)礎(chu)被不(bu)斷削(xue)弱，“雙(shuang)(shuang)高(gao)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)低(di)慣(guan)量(liang)(liang)、低(di)阻尼、弱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓支(zhi)(zhi)撐等(deng)特(te)征明顯(xian)，運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)風險(xian)不(bu)斷加大(da)(da)(da)，甚至導致(zhi)寬頻(pin)(pin)振蕩等(deng)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)形(xing)(xing)態(tai)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)問題(ti)。西(xi)(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送(song)規(gui)模持(chi)續擴大(da)(da)(da)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)(bu)(bu)增(zeng)(zeng)加電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)安全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)壓力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)。截至2022年(nian)底，我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)建成(cheng)投運(yun)(yun)(yun)“20直(zhi)(zhi)17交”37條特(te)高(gao)壓輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道，建成(cheng)世界上規(gui)模最大(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)遠距(ju)離輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)體(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)，西(xi)(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送(song)規(gui)模超(chao)(chao)過(guo)3億千(qian)瓦(wa)。當(dang)前西(xi)(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送(song)通(tong)(tong)道送(song)受端(duan)(duan)安全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)問題(ti)凸顯(xian)，尤(you)其中(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)部地(di)區多(duo)(duo)條直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)饋入，本(ben)(ben)地(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)支(zhi)(zhi)撐能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)弱，現(xian)(xian)階段已(yi)給(gei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網安全(quan)(quan)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)壓力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)。未(wei)來(lai)(lai)隨(sui)著(zhu)沙(sha)漠戈壁荒(huang)漠地(di)區新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)基(ji)(ji)地(di)、藏東(dong)南水(shui)風光(guang)基(ji)(ji)地(di)持(chi)續開發(fa)，我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)西(xi)(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送(song)規(gui)模還(huan)(huan)將(jiang)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)(bu)(bu)擴大(da)(da)(da)，直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)同(tong)(tong)送(song)受端(duan)(duan)、多(duo)(duo)回直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)饋入、多(duo)(duo)個密集(ji)通(tong)(tong)道等(deng)問題(ti)預計更加突出(chu)，給(gei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)安全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)巨(ju)大(da)(da)(da)挑(tiao)戰。未(wei)來(lai)(lai)極端(duan)(duan)天氣下(xia)(xia)應急保供(gong)(gong)問題(ti)也需(xu)重(zhong)(zhong)點關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)。我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)是(shi)世界上自然災害最為(wei)(wei)嚴重(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)之一(yi)(yi)(yi)，近(jin)年(nian)來(lai)(lai)極端(duan)(duan)天氣頻(pin)(pin)率、強(qiang)度(du)、持(chi)續時(shi)間均超(chao)(chao)預期(qi)，給(gei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)安全(quan)(quan)供(gong)(gong)應、特(te)別是(shi)民生(sheng)(sheng)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保障造成(cheng)了(le)一(yi)(yi)(yi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)影(ying)響(xiang)。進(jin)入“十四五”以(yi)來(lai)(lai)，由于(yu)疫情反復(fu)、極端(duan)(duan)天氣、燃(ran)料價格波動(dong)、汛(xun)期(qi)來(lai)(lai)水(shui)偏枯(ku)等(deng)多(duo)(duo)重(zhong)(zhong)因素影(ying)響(xiang)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)逐(zhu)步(bu)(bu)(bu)趨緊，2021年(nian)東(dong)北限電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)引(yin)起(qi)廣泛關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)。2022年(nian)迎峰(feng)度(du)夏(xia)期(qi)間，受持(chi)續高(gao)溫天氣影(ying)響(xiang)，多(duo)(duo)個省區采(cai)取有序(xu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)措施，其中(zhong)(zhong)四川極端(duan)(duan)干旱導致(zhi)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)出(chu)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)嚴重(zhong)(zhong)不(bu)足，直(zhi)(zhi)接影(ying)響(xiang)本(ben)(ben)省供(gong)(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)外送(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)安全(quan)(quan)。隨(sui)著(zhu)當(dang)今網絡和(he)媒(mei)體(ti)(ti)(ti)等(deng)信息化(hua)(hua)程度(du)日(ri)漸發(fa)達(da)，社會對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)形(xing)(xing)勢的(de)(de)(de)(de)關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)度(du)顯(xian)著(zhu)提高(gao)，對(dui)有序(xu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、拉閘限電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事故等(deng)問題(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)容忍度(du)明顯(xian)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)，保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)應安全(quan)(quan)是(shi)社會主義現(xian)(xian)代(dai)化(hua)(hua)強(qiang)國(guo)(guo)建設(she)(she)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)支(zhi)(zhi)撐。新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)形(xing)(xing)勢下(xia)(xia)，國(guo)(guo)家(jia)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)局加強(qiang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)管理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)頂層設(she)(she)計，為(wei)(wei)保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)、統(tong)(tong)(tong)籌(chou)推進(jin)源(yuan)(yuan)網荷儲協(xie)同(tong)(tong)發(fa)展(zhan)提供(gong)(gong)了(le)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)指導，為(wei)(wei)實現(xian)(xian)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)式現(xian)(xian)代(dai)化(hua)(hua)、全(quan)(quan)面推進(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)華民族偉(wei)大(da)(da)(da)復(fu)興提供(gong)(gong)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)可靠的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)支(zhi)(zhi)撐。

二、科學統(tong)籌(chou)電力系統(tong)結(jie)構與布局，支撐穩定工作再(zai)上新臺階

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)是一(yi)個整體，需堅持系(xi)統(tong)(tong)思(si)(si)維，按照全(quan)國一(yi)盤(pan)棋的思(si)(si)路，科學構(gou)建(jian)源(yuan)網(wang)(wang)荷儲結構(gou)與(yu)布局，共同支撐(cheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)穩定發(fa)展(zhan)。新(xin)形(xing)勢下，需進一(yi)步(bu)做好化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和(he)非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)與(yu)調節能(neng)(neng)力(li)建(jian)設(she)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)建(jian)設(she)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供給與(yu)需求(qiu)的統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)優化(hua)，推動電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)穩定工作再上(shang)新(xin)臺階。

（一）統籌(chou)化石能(neng)源(yuan)和(he)非(fei)化石能(neng)源(yuan)發展，提升電源(yuan)保(bao)供水平

電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)保供是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)穩定發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)根本(ben)要求。構(gou)建(jian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)，傳統(tong)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)逐步退(tui)出要建(jian)立在(zai)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全(quan)可(ke)(ke)靠(kao)的(de)(de)替代(dai)基(ji)(ji)礎(chu)上，需(xu)(xu)統(tong)籌(chou)(chou)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展與(yu)安(an)全(quan)，形成多元綠色低(di)碳電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供應結(jie)構(gou)。《意見》提出“統(tong)籌(chou)(chou)各類(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規(gui)模和(he)(he)布(bu)局，可(ke)(ke)靠(kao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)要滿足(zu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)平衡需(xu)(xu)要并留有合理裕(yu)度(du)”，從保供方(fang)面(mian)滿足(zu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)“安(an)全(quan)充(chong)裕(yu)”的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展要求。一(yi)是(shi)加快推動煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)轉型(xing)升級。立足(zu)我國(guo)以煤(mei)(mei)為主的(de)(de)基(ji)(ji)本(ben)國(guo)情，需(xu)(xu)充(chong)分(fen)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)揮煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)保障能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全(quan)的(de)(de)“壓艙石”作用(yong)，推動煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)科學(xue)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展。煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)今后較長一(yi)段(duan)時(shi)(shi)期內(nei)仍將(jiang)是(shi)我國(guo)重要的(de)(de)基(ji)(ji)礎(chu)保障性和(he)(he)系(xi)統(tong)調節(jie)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，需(xu)(xu)大(da)力(li)(li)(li)(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，在(zai)減少發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占(zhan)比的(de)(de)同(tong)時(shi)(shi)大(da)力(li)(li)(li)(li)提升煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)調節(jie)能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)。“十四五”期間完成靈活性改造2億千瓦(wa)，增加系(xi)統(tong)調節(jie)能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)3000-4000萬(wan)千瓦(wa)。二(er)是(shi)大(da)力(li)(li)(li)(li)推進(jin)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全(quan)可(ke)(ke)靠(kao)替代(dai)。“雙碳”目標(biao)要求新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)逐漸成為系(xi)統(tong)中主體電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，但當前新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)主動支(zhi)撐能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)與(yu)傳統(tong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機組相比仍差(cha)距較大(da)，需(xu)(xu)多措并舉大(da)力(li)(li)(li)(li)提升。一(yi)方(fang)面(mian)要推動系(xi)統(tong)友(you)好型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站建(jian)設，通過深度(du)融合高精度(du)長時(shi)(shi)間尺度(du)功(gong)率預測(ce)技(ji)術、構(gou)網型(xing)儲能(neng)、智慧(hui)調控(kong)等新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)技(ji)術應用(yong)，推動電(dian)(dian)(dian)站具備等同(tong)于常規(gui)機組的(de)(de)支(zhi)撐能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)；另一(yi)方(fang)面(mian)要協同(tong)推進(jin)大(da)型(xing)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)基(ji)(ji)地、調節(jie)支(zhi)撐資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和(he)(he)外送(song)通道開發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)建(jian)設，通過多能(neng)互(hu)補開發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)方(fang)式，實現新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)大(da)規(gui)模資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)優化(hua)配置(zhi)和(he)(he)對受端化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)靠(kao)替代(dai)。

（二）統(tong)籌(chou)新能源發展與調節能力建(jian)設，穩步(bu)推進電力系統(tong)綠色低碳轉型

綠(lv)色低碳(tan)轉型(xing)是(shi)(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)穩(wen)定(ding)發展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)必由之路(lu)。“雙碳(tan)”戰略(lve)目標下，新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)滲透率將進一步提升(sheng)，而調節能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)是(shi)(shi)(shi)影響新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)大規模(mo)發展(zhan)與(yu)消納的(de)(de)(de)關(guan)鍵。《意見》提出(chu)“科學安排儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建設，按需(xu)科學規劃與(yu)配置儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)”。新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)構建需(xu)充分(fen)挖掘源(yuan)網荷儲(chu)各側調節潛力(li)，在充分(fen)利用(yong)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)常規調節資源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)基礎上，重點推動儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)規模(mo)化(hua)應(ying)用(yong)。一是(shi)(shi)(shi)有(you)序建設抽水蓄(xu)(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)。抽水蓄(xu)(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)是(shi)(shi)(shi)當前(qian)技(ji)(ji)術最成(cheng)熟、經(jing)濟性(xing)較好的(de)(de)(de)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)術路(lu)線，但對站址要求高(gao)、建設周(zhou)期長，需(xu)堅持系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)觀念，明確(que)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)定(ding)位，統(tong)(tong)籌抽蓄(xu)(xu)與(yu)其(qi)他調節資源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)優(you)化(hua)配置，統(tong)(tong)籌區域與(yu)省級抽蓄(xu)(xu)布局(ju)，優(you)化(hua)發展(zhan)規模(mo)、布局(ju)和時序。二是(shi)(shi)(shi)積極推進新型(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建設。結(jie)合(he)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)需(xu)求及技(ji)(ji)術經(jing)濟性(xing)，積極拓展(zhan)在源(yuan)網荷各側應(ying)用(yong)場景，構建儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)多元融(rong)合(he)發展(zhan)模(mo)式，充分(fen)發揮(hui)新型(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)提升(sheng)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)平衡調節能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)、提升(sheng)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)安全穩(wen)定(ding)運行(xing)水平、提升(sheng)負荷供電(dian)(dian)保障(zhang)和自平衡能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)等關(guan)鍵作用(yong)。

（三）統籌電源和電網建設，提升資(zi)源優(you)化配置能力

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)建(jian)設(she)(she)升(sheng)級是電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統穩(wen)定(ding)發(fa)展的(de)(de)重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)前提(ti)(ti)。未來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統將(jiang)在(zai)生產(chan)結構、運(yun)行機理和(he)(he)平(ping)衡模式等(deng)(deng)方面(mian)發(fa)生深刻變化，但以(yi)交流(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)術(shu)為基礎這(zhe)一(yi)重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)特(te)征在(zai)較長時間內(nei)不(bu)會改變。《意見》提(ti)(ti)出(chu)“構建(jian)堅(jian)強柔(rou)(rou)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)平(ping)臺”。新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統在(zai)形態上(shang)將(jiang)呈(cheng)現(xian)“大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)、大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)”與(yu)分布(bu)式兼(jian)容互補(bu)的(de)(de)基本(ben)格局。一(yi)是加強電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)架建(jian)設(she)(she)。構建(jian)分層分區(qu)、結構清(qing)晰、安全(quan)可控(kong)、靈(ling)活(huo)高效、適應(ying)(ying)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)占比(bi)(bi)逐步提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)架，保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)證電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)結構強度，保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)證必(bi)要(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)靈(ling)活(huo)性(xing)和(he)(he)冗余度，從運(yun)行方面(mian)滿足新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統“安全(quan)充裕”的(de)(de)發(fa)展要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)。同(tong)時，將(jiang)分布(bu)式智能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)作為大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)補(bu)充，推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)建(jian)設(she)(she)分布(bu)式智能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)，提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)就(jiu)地(di)(di)平(ping)衡能(neng)力(li)(li)，促進(jin)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)就(jiu)地(di)(di)消(xiao)納利用(yong)。二是大(da)力(li)(li)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)送(song)受(shou)端(duan)(duan)穩(wen)定(ding)運(yun)行水平(ping)。隨(sui)著沙漠戈(ge)壁(bi)荒漠基地(di)(di)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)大(da)規模開(kai)發(fa)外送(song)，西電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送(song)規模將(jiang)進(jin)一(yi)步擴大(da)，且西電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送(song)定(ding)位也將(jiang)由“保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)供應(ying)(ying)”向“保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)供應(ying)(ying)”和(he)(he)“調結構”并(bing)舉轉變，同(tong)時滿足受(shou)端(duan)(duan)地(di)(di)區(qu)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)障容量和(he)(he)綠色(se)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量需求(qiu)(qiu)。為保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)障大(da)規模高比(bi)(bi)例(li)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)西電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送(song)的(de)(de)安全(quan)穩(wen)定(ding)運(yun)行，需嚴格遵守《意見》提(ti)(ti)出(chu)的(de)(de)“直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)送(song)端(duan)(duan)合理分群(qun)”、“輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道和(he)(he)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)受(shou)端(duan)(duan)避免過于(yu)密集”、“具備足夠的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)支(zhi)撐能(neng)力(li)(li)”等(deng)(deng)相關要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)。三是積極推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)柔(rou)(rou)性(xing)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)技(ji)術(shu)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)。隨(sui)著未來新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)基地(di)(di)開(kai)發(fa)布(bu)局進(jin)一(yi)步向沙戈(ge)荒腹地(di)(di)延伸，遠離電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)主網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)，送(song)端(duan)(duan)不(bu)具備支(zhi)撐性(xing)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)建(jian)設(she)(she)條件，系(xi)(xi)統轉動(dong)慣量和(he)(he)短路容量不(bu)足、構網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)困難等(deng)(deng)系(xi)(xi)列問(wen)題(ti)突出(chu)，亟需新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)術(shu)創新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)升(sheng)級，以(yi)支(zhi)撐實現(xian)極高比(bi)(bi)例(li)甚至純(chun)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)外送(song)。柔(rou)(rou)性(xing)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)技(ji)術(shu)能(neng)從根本(ben)上(shang)解決傳統多(duo)回直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)同(tong)時換相失敗導致的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)安全(quan)穩(wen)定(ding)問(wen)題(ti)，需加快推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)技(ji)術(shu)研發(fa)和(he)(he)推(tui)(tui)(tui)廣應(ying)(ying)用(yong)。

（四）統籌電力供給與需求，提升負荷管理水平

負荷(he)側(ce)調(diao)節(jie)是電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統穩(wen)定(ding)發展的(de)(de)(de)重要保(bao)障(zhang)。未來(lai)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)用戶既(ji)是電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供應保(bao)障(zhang)的(de)(de)(de)服(fu)務(wu)對象，也是電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統重要的(de)(de)(de)調(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)。《意見》提(ti)出“研究分布式電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)、可(ke)控負荷(he)的(de)(de)(de)匯(hui)聚管理形式，實現海量分散(san)可(ke)控資(zi)源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)精準評估、有效聚合和協同控制”。新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統構建(jian)需推動終端負荷(he)特(te)性由傳統的(de)(de)(de)剛性、純消(xiao)費型(xing)，向柔性、生(sheng)產與(yu)消(xiao)費兼具(ju)型(xing)轉變。未來(lai)各地區(qu)尖峰負荷(he)特(te)征日(ri)益凸顯，增加(jia)了(le)投資(zi)成(cheng)本與(yu)保(bao)供難度，需深入挖掘用戶側(ce)靈活(huo)性潛力(li)(li)(li)，積極整合分散(san)需求(qiu)響應資(zi)源(yuan)，通過電(dian)(dian)價政策、需求(qiu)側(ce)響應機制引導可(ke)調(diao)節(jie)負荷(he)參與(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統平衡控制，依(yi)托(tuo)電(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車、虛擬電(dian)(dian)廠等(deng)新型(xing)負荷(he)，推動源(yuan)網荷(he)儲靈活(huo)互動，支撐電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統穩(wen)定(ding)運行。

三、堅決(jue)貫徹落實電力(li)系統穩定工(gong)作部署，全面(mian)加(jia)強(qiang)電力(li)系統規(gui)劃設計

電(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統規(gui)劃(hua)設(she)計(ji)是電(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)工(gong)作的(de)(de)堅強(qiang)保障。長期以來，我國電(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統在多個關鍵時(shi)期平穩(wen)(wen)轉型，以可靠穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)的(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)供應保障支撐(cheng)經濟社會(hui)快速發(fa)展需(xu)要，離不開規(gui)劃(hua)設(she)計(ji)工(gong)作的(de)(de)支撐(cheng)。未來需(xu)進一(yi)步加(jia)強(qiang)規(gui)劃(hua)引領，強(qiang)化規(gui)劃(hua)執行，堅持系(xi)(xi)統觀(guan)念，統籌源網荷儲整體(ti)規(gui)劃(hua)，加(jia)強(qiang)規(gui)劃(hua)與建設(she)、運行等(deng)環節的(de)(de)有(you)效銜接，推動規(gui)劃(hua)設(she)計(ji)體(ti)系(xi)(xi)革新升(sheng)級，支撐(cheng)電(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統安全穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)發(fa)展。

（一）以規劃設計支(zhi)撐電力先行，保(bao)障國(guo)民經濟穩定發(fa)展(zhan)

電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)先(xian)行(xing)、保(bao)(bao)持必要的備用，是(shi)國民經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的重要保(bao)(bao)障。1994—1998年，亞洲發(fa)生金融危機，國內通貨膨(peng)脹過(guo)高(gao)，經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)速(su)放緩(huan)，導(dao)致我國電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)需求(qiu)增(zeng)速(su)持續下降(jiang)。受此影響，1998—2002年發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機增(zeng)速(su)由9.1%連年下降(jiang)至5.3%，但這一時期，由于國家(jia)采取相應宏觀調(diao)控政(zheng)策(ce)，經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)長快速(su)回升，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)需求(qiu)急劇(ju)增(zeng)加，發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機不足導(dao)致多個省(sheng)份用電(dian)(dian)告急。之后(hou)，通過(guo)加快發(fa)電(dian)(dian)項目規劃和建設(she)，恢復了電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平衡。實(shi)踐證(zheng)明，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)要做好先(xian)行(xing)官，需要大力(li)(li)做好規劃設(she)計工作，保(bao)(bao)持適度超前發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，寧讓(rang)電(dian)(dian)等(deng)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)、不讓(rang)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)等(deng)電(dian)(dian)。

（二）加快推(tui)動適應新型電力系(xi)統的規劃(hua)設計體(ti)系(xi)革(ge)新

未來新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)逐步成為主(zhu)體電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，系統(tong)發電(dian)出力轉變為高度不(bu)確定性(xing)，市場主(zhu)體從“單一化(hua)”向(xiang)“多(duo)元(yuan)化(hua)”轉變，源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)(wang)(wang)荷(he)儲(chu)各環節都(dou)將(jiang)出現較大變量和多(duo)重約(yue)(yue)束(shu)。亟需發展(zhan)統(tong)籌供(gong)給(gei)與消費(fei)、統(tong)籌電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與電(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)、統(tong)籌經濟(ji)(ji)與環境(jing)、統(tong)籌新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發展(zhan)與調節能(neng)力建設等多(duo)約(yue)(yue)束(shu)多(duo)目標(biao)的最(zui)優(you)(you)決策規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)技術。推動(dong)電(dian)力規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)由(you)傳統(tong)“負荷(he)預測-電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)-電(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)”的單線程規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)向(xiang)“源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)(wang)(wang)荷(he)儲(chu)融合規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)”升(sheng)級，同時(shi)考慮市場等因素，實現電(dian)力系統(tong)安全充裕、綠色低碳、經濟(ji)(ji)高效的多(duo)目標(biao)統(tong)籌優(you)(you)化(hua)。

（三）加強規(gui)劃設計(ji)與建設、運(yun)行等環節的有(you)效銜接(jie)

當前規(gui)劃設計和(he)(he)貫徹執行仍缺少有效約束(shu)，部分項目(mu)納(na)規(gui)積(ji)極，但執行落實情況不佳，未來需立足電力系(xi)統穩(wen)定(ding)工作，嚴格按(an)規(gui)劃推動源網荷儲(chu)協同發展(zhan)、按(an)時投運(yun)。同時，在規(gui)劃設計階段，充分兼(jian)顧建設運(yun)行要求，考慮源荷高度不確定(ding)性(xing)(xing)，開(kai)展(zhan)多時間尺(chi)度、多運(yun)行方式、多典(dian)型(xing)場景的生產(chan)運(yun)行模擬和(he)(he)仿(fang)真分析，以應對(dui)“雙高”特(te)性(xing)(xing)帶來的系(xi)統安全穩(wen)定(ding)運(yun)行風(feng)險，提升規(gui)劃方案的適應性(xing)(xing)、可行性(xing)(xing)與安全性(xing)(xing)。