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與2022年(nian)相比，2023年(nian)各價區(qu)(qu)均價，除(chu)蒙西價格(ge)上漲(zhang)，其他價區(qu)(qu)價格(ge)均下降。蒙西價格(ge)大(da)幅(fu)(fu)上漲(zhang)的主要原(yuan)因為(wei)需求大(da)幅(fu)(fu)增(zeng)加；同時新能源出力也有增(zeng)長，一定程度(du)上緩解(jie)了價格(ge)上漲(zhang)趨(qu)勢(shi)。另外降價的價區(qu)(qu)中，省(sheng)間(jian)(jian)的降幅(fu)(fu)最大(da)，同比-43.10%。主要原(yuan)因為(wei)受限價規則調整和豐水(shui)期水(shui)電大(da)發影響，2023年(nian)省(sheng)間(jian)(jian)現貨市場的總體供需緊張程度(du)弱于2022年(nian)。

（來源(yuan)：微信公眾號“蘭木達電力現貨”作者：Lambda）

新能源現(xian)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)度電(dian)(dian)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)小結與2022年相比，光(guang)(guang)伏方面，2023年山西(xi)(xi)、甘肅光(guang)(guang)伏度電(dian)(dian)現(xian)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)下降(jiang)；山東、蒙西(xi)(xi)度電(dian)(dian)現(xian)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)上(shang)漲(zhang)。風(feng)電(dian)(dian)方面，除(chu)蒙西(xi)(xi)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)度電(dian)(dian)現(xian)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)上(shang)漲(zhang)，其(qi)他價區(qu)度電(dian)(dian)現(xian)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)均下降(jiang)。其(qi)中蒙西(xi)(xi)光(guang)(guang)伏、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)度電(dian)(dian)現(xian)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)均波動最大（光(guang)(guang)伏、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)同比分別為(wei)56.62%、34.23%），主要(yao)原因為(wei)蒙西(xi)(xi)年現(xian)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)均價漲(zhang)幅較大，風(feng)光(guang)(guang)搭便(bian)車價格上(shang)漲(zhang)。

現貨分時(shi)(shi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)曲(qu)線(xian)小(xiao)結廣東(dong)(dong)本年(nian)現貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)曲(qu)線(xian)為(wei)“三峰(feng)(feng)(feng)雙谷(gu)(gu)(gu)”型(xing)(xing)；凌晨5-6點、13點為(wei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)低(di)(di)谷(gu)(gu)(gu)；早(zao)(zao)晚峰(feng)(feng)(feng)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)形(xing)成峰(feng)(feng)(feng)段(duan)，且晚峰(feng)(feng)(feng)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)平緩；22點高(gao)位中又高(gao)起，形(xing)成平均(jun)最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)。山西(xi)(xi)(xi)、山東(dong)(dong)、省(sheng)間、蒙(meng)西(xi)(xi)(xi)曲(qu)線(xian)均(jun)近似“鴨(ya)(ya)子”型(xing)(xing)，均(jun)是(shi)早(zao)(zao)晚峰(feng)(feng)(feng)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)，中午(wu)(wu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)低(di)(di)。不同(tong)處(chu)是(shi)：山西(xi)(xi)(xi)、山東(dong)(dong)曲(qu)線(xian)早(zao)(zao)晚峰(feng)(feng)(feng)平緩波(bo)動(dong)，且山東(dong)(dong)”鴨(ya)(ya)腹”（價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)谷(gu)(gu)(gu)段(duan)）波(bo)動(dong)更劇烈；蒙(meng)西(xi)(xi)(xi)兩(liang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)曲(qu)線(xian)則較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)聳，波(bo)動(dong)劇烈，峰(feng)(feng)(feng)谷(gu)(gu)(gu)差(cha)(cha)(cha)最(zui)(zui)(zui)大，整體(ti)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)也(ye)最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)。甘(gan)肅(su)河東(dong)(dong)曲(qu)線(xian)近似平緩的(de)(de)(de)”峽谷(gu)(gu)(gu)“型(xing)(xing)，早(zao)(zao)晚高(gao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)相對較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)，中午(wu)(wu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)低(di)(di)；由(you)于阻(zu)(zu)塞原(yuan)因，甘(gan)肅(su)河西(xi)(xi)(xi)曲(qu)線(xian)始終在河東(dong)(dong)曲(qu)線(xian)下方凹下形(xing)成“U”型(xing)(xing)，中午(wu)(wu)時(shi)(shi)段(duan)阻(zu)(zu)塞程(cheng)度最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)，相差(cha)(cha)(cha)最(zui)(zui)(zui)大。甘(gan)肅(su)河西(xi)(xi)(xi)整體(ti)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)為(wei)各價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)中最(zui)(zui)(zui)低(di)(di)。本年(nian)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)谷(gu)(gu)(gu)差(cha)(cha)(cha)率(lv)最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)陣(zhen)營為(wei)：蒙(meng)西(xi)(xi)(xi)呼包(bao)東(dong)(dong)（67.15%）、蒙(meng)西(xi)(xi)(xi)呼包(bao)西(xi)(xi)(xi)（66.07%）、山東(dong)(dong)（65.60%）、甘(gan)肅(su)河西(xi)(xi)(xi)（64.75%）；山西(xi)(xi)(xi)其次，峰(feng)(feng)(feng)谷(gu)(gu)(gu)差(cha)(cha)(cha)率(lv)為(wei)57.89%。峰(feng)(feng)(feng)谷(gu)(gu)(gu)差(cha)(cha)(cha)率(lv)最(zui)(zui)(zui)低(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)為(wei)：廣東(dong)(dong)（38.24%）、省(sheng)間（35.28%）、甘(gan)肅(su)河東(dong)(dong)（30.85%）。峰(feng)(feng)(feng)谷(gu)(gu)(gu)差(cha)(cha)(cha)率(lv)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)低(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)省(sheng)級(ji)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)，新(xin)能源(yuan)裝(zhuang)機較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)小(xiao)。2023年(nian)，甘(gan)肅(su)河西(xi)(xi)(xi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)低(di)(di)谷(gu)(gu)(gu)持(chi)續(xu)時(shi)(shi)間最(zui)(zui)(zui)長(chang)，達3074小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，占總時(shi)(shi)長(chang)的(de)(de)(de)35.1%。蒙(meng)西(xi)(xi)(xi)呼包(bao)東(dong)(dong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)段(duan)持(chi)續(xu)時(shi)(shi)間最(zui)(zui)(zui)長(chang)，達2210小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，占總時(shi)(shi)長(chang)的(de)(de)(de)25.2%。

儲(chu)能(neng)現貨收益小結本年儲(chu)能(neng)收益按照從高到(dao)低(di)，排名(ming)依(yi)次是：蒙西(xi)呼包(bao)東(dong)、蒙西(xi)呼包(bao)西(xi)、山(shan)東(dong)、山(shan)西(xi)、甘肅(su)河西(xi)、甘肅(su)河東(dong)、廣(guang)東(dong)，與峰谷差(cha)率排名(ming)相關(guan)性較(jiao)高。

分時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)現貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)分布(bu)廣東(dong)本年(nian)(nian)持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)最(zui)長(chang)(chang)的價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)為(wei)(wei)350-400元/兆(zhao)瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)（達(da)(da)1960小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)總時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)長(chang)(chang)的22.4%）。山(shan)西(xi)全年(nian)(nian)0-50的極低(di)(di)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)1142小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)（占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)13%）。300-400兩(liang)個(ge)連續(xu)(xu)(xu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)最(zui)長(chang)(chang)（共達(da)(da)4394小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)50.2%）。整體(ti)分布(bu)圖(tu)偏左，600元/兆(zhao)瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)以上高(gao)(gao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)635小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)（占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)7.2%）。山(shan)東(dong)全年(nian)(nian)負價(jia)(jia)(jia)持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)長(chang)(chang)973小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)（占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)11.1%）。持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)最(zui)長(chang)(chang)的價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)為(wei)(wei)400-450（達(da)(da)1607小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)18.3%）。600元/兆(zhao)瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)以上高(gao)(gao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)共持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)822小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)（占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)9.4%）。甘(gan)肅(su)兩(liang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)(qu)(qu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)分布(bu)圖(tu)較集中(zhong)，極低(di)(di)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)長(chang)(chang)，此特性甘(gan)肅(su)河西(xi)更為(wei)(wei)明顯（持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)1968小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)22.5%）。其次是(shi)350-400價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)（河東(dong)、河西(xi)分別持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)3058、2133小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，平均占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)29.6%）。蒙西(xi)兩(liang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)(qu)(qu)分布(bu)圖(tu)離(li)散程度最(zui)高(gao)(gao)，0-50的極低(di)(di)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)、350-400中(zhong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)、1500-1550的高(gao)(gao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)三(san)處(chu)高(gao)(gao)起(qi)；600以上高(gao)(gao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)(qu)(qu)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)，呼包東(dong)、呼包西(xi)全年(nian)(nian)平均持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)2971小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)（平均占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)(da)33.9%）。

現(xian)貨價(jia)格聚(ju)類(lei)分析(xi)小結各價(jia)區(qu)(qu)聚(ju)類(lei)曲(qu)(qu)線(xian)中，除(chu)省間(jian)是(shi)低價(jia)類(lei)曲(qu)(qu)線(xian)占(zhan)比(bi)最(zui)(zui)多，其他價(jia)區(qu)(qu)均(jun)為(wei)中價(jia)類(lei)曲(qu)(qu)線(xian)占(zhan)比(bi)最(zui)(zui)多。蒙西高(gao)價(jia)類(lei)曲(qu)(qu)線(xian)最(zui)(zui)多，達6種(zhong)，兩價(jia)區(qu)(qu)高(gao)價(jia)類(lei)曲(qu)(qu)線(xian)總占(zhan)比(bi)均(jun)超過54%。甘(gan)肅低價(jia)類(lei)曲(qu)(qu)線(xian)種(zhong)類(lei)最(zui)(zui)多，達3種(zhong)；河(he)東(dong)、河(he)西低價(jia)類(lei)曲(qu)(qu)線(xian)總占(zhan)比(bi)分別為(wei)20.82%、42.47%。廣東(dong)與省間(jian)均(jun)有(you)一(yi)種(zhong)極端(duan)高(gao)價(jia)類(lei)曲(qu)(qu)線(xian)，占(zhan)比(bi)小于1%，即全年中出現(xian)次(ci)數(shu)少于4天。

平(ping)均(jun)現(xian)貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)結全年各價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)平(ping)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)均(jun)為(wei)負(fu)，即日前平(ping)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)高(gao)于(yu)實(shi)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)平(ping)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)。山西價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)最大(da)(da)，為(wei)-10.64元/兆(zhao)瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；廣東(dong)其次，價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)為(wei)-10.42元/兆(zhao)瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。山東(dong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)最小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)（-2.66元/兆(zhao)瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)）。2023年山西價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)，位(wei)于(yu)0-100區(qu)間(jian)(jian)最多，小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)48.62%；小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)-300的(de)(de)(de)(de)負(fu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)共(gong)(gong)281小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)到3.2%；大(da)(da)于(yu)300的(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)共(gong)(gong)137小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)1.6%。山東(dong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)位(wei)于(yu)-100-0的(de)(de)(de)(de)負(fu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)區(qu)間(jian)(jian)最多，小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)40.11%；小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)-300的(de)(de)(de)(de)負(fu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)共(gong)(gong)179小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)2.0%；大(da)(da)于(yu)300的(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)共(gong)(gong)143小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1.6%。甘(gan)肅河(he)東(dong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)位(wei)于(yu)0-100的(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)區(qu)間(jian)(jian)最多，小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)37.72%；-100-0的(de)(de)(de)(de)負(fu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)區(qu)間(jian)(jian)緊隨其后（占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)37.26%）；小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)-300的(de)(de)(de)(de)負(fu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)共(gong)(gong)141小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1.6%；大(da)(da)于(yu)300的(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)共(gong)(gong)344小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)3.9%。甘(gan)肅河(he)西價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)位(wei)于(yu)0-100的(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)區(qu)間(jian)(jian)最多，小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)43.01%；-100-0的(de)(de)(de)(de)負(fu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)區(qu)間(jian)(jian)也較(jiao)多（占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)33.07%）；小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)-300的(de)(de)(de)(de)負(fu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)共(gong)(gong)176小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)2.0%；大(da)(da)于(yu)300的(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)共(gong)(gong)310小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)3.5%。 極(ji)端價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)中，甘(gan)肅正(zheng)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)多于(yu)負(fu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)，其他價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)均(jun)為(wei)負(fu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)更多。

分月需求(qiu)與現(xian)貨(huo)價格關聯分析

蒙西兩價(jia)區(qu)競價(jia)空間與(yu)實時價(jia)格(ge)相關(guan)性最(zui)高（相關(guan)系(xi)數(shu)(shu)2023年平均(jun)0.86），且相關(guan)系(xi)數(shu)(shu)變化(hua)不(bu)大(da)，表明蒙西競價(jia)空間對(dui)實時價(jia)格(ge)的影響非常顯著且保持穩定。

廣東的競(jing)價空間與實時價格從2022年(nian)高度相關(guan)（相關(guan)系數0.92），2023年(nian)相關(guan)性(xing)顯著降低，甚至方(fang)向發生反轉（2023年(nian)相關(guan)系數為-0.12）。

山西、甘肅河西2023年(nian)的相關系(xi)數(shu)較2022年(nian)有所下降，但仍為正數(shu)，說明競(jing)價空間與(yu)實(shi)時(shi)價格之間存在一(yi)定的正向關系(xi)，但強度有所減弱(ruo)。

山東、甘(gan)肅河東的相關(guan)系(xi)數(shu)較低且變化不大，這表明兩省競價(jia)空間與實時價(jia)格之間的關(guan)系(xi)較弱且相對穩定。

五(wu)個(ge)省級市(shi)場中，除了山東相(xiang)關性今年增強(qiang)，其他四(si)個(ge)市(shi)場相(xiang)關性均有所減(jian)弱。

分(fen)時（96點）需求與現貨價格關(guan)聯分(fen)析

各價(jia)區96時競價(jia)空間與(yu)實時價(jia)格相關性，均遠高于逐月相關性。

2023年相(xiang)關(guan)性(xing)從高到低依次是(shi)：蒙西（相(xiang)關(guan)系數(shu)0.98左右）、山西（0.98）、山東(dong)（0.96）、甘肅(su)河(he)(he)西（0.93）、甘肅(su)河(he)(he)東(dong)（0.75）、廣(guang)東(dong)（0.74)。排名與新能源裝(zhuang)機(ji)也(ye)有一定相(xiang)關(guan)性(xing)。

2023年相關性(xing)顯著減弱的(de)價區(qu)有：廣(guang)東(dong)（同(tong)比-21%）、甘肅河東(dong)（同(tong)比-19%）。蒙西是唯一相關性(xing)增強的(de)省級市場。